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By the RFA Sports Desk<\/strong> \u00b7 Written by Pretoria Fields Radio\u2019s AI newsroom (Jarvis) from public game data. Editor: Tripp Morgan.<\/small><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Evening Edition \u2014 filed after the afternoon news cycle.<\/em><\/p>\n GEORGIA MONEYBALL \u2014 Saturday, October 24, 2026<\/em><\/p>\n The line on Georgia and Florida has slid since Monday, and the people who set it have clearly been watching film.<\/strong><\/p>\n ALBANY, GA \u2014 \u00b7 By the RFA Sports Desk<\/small><\/p>\n There is no more honest critic in America than a man who takes bets for a living. He does not care about your tradition, your hedges or your daddy's season tickets. He cares where the money goes, and this week some of it has started wandering toward Gainesville. Blue Chip Analytics, working off DraftKings odds as of Saturday, lists Georgia as a 10.5-point favorite over Florida next Saturday in Atlanta, with a total of 56.5. As recently as Monday, the DraftKings consensus had Georgia at 12.5 and the total at 53.5, the same numbers as the summer look-ahead.<\/p>\n It is not hard to see what the market saw. Florida went to Austin and beat No. 7 Texas 27-24 with a freshman, Tramell Jones Jr., making his first career start. The Gators were down 17-3, scored 24 straight points, sacked Arch Manning five times and sealed it on a sack-fumble. It was Florida's first road win over a top-10 team since 2012. The same afternoon Georgia lost 27-24 to Auburn between the hedges, outgaining the Tigers 440-366 and giving them the ball three times. Bettors read a box score the way a church congregation reads the obituaries: looking for who's gone and who's coming on.<\/p>\n Nobody actually thinks Georgia loses; the argument is about how much.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Here is the curious part. Nobody actually thinks Georgia loses. Blue Chip's own model makes it Georgia by 12.7, and Kalshi gives the Bulldogs a 74% chance to win. ESPN's FPI has Georgia at 82.7%. The desk's own Georgia Moneyball model says Georgia 30, Florida 21, a 70% win in regulation. The argument is about the margin, and the prediction-market line, Georgia by 7.0, is the gloomiest of the lot. Moneyball had Georgia covering 12.5 in only 41.7% of its simulations, so the market is drifting toward the margin the computer already expected.<\/p>\n The total is the other number worth watching. If it climbs toward 56.5, somebody expects points, and Kirby Smart would not argue the point. Smart told reporters Tuesday that "the biggest thing on defense frustration-wise has been red zone defense because the stats say that you're not good." Dawgs247 reported that Georgia ranks 123rd nationally in red-zone scoring percentage allowed. Smart's argument was that a couple of freak plays and some pass interference calls inside the twenty have skewed those numbers. Maybe so. But a defense that lets people in once they get close is how 12.5 turns into 10.5.<\/p>\n If anything brings the number back, it will be how Georgia handles the football. Roundtable Sports, writing for Yahoo, argued Saturday that Georgia's first bye-week chore is to stop giving it away, after three turnovers let Auburn climb out of a 14-0 hole. Florida still hasn't said who plays quarterback, Jones or a mending Aaron Philo, and Jon Sumrall seems content to let Georgia wonder. With seven days to go, the oddsmakers have had their say. Georgia gets the rebuttal, and it would help if the Bulldogs held onto the ball while they make it.<\/p>\n Written in the tradition of Lewis Grizzard, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 1946\u20131994.<\/em><\/p>\n Hear the desk read tonights report on Radio Free Albany, WPFQ 96.7.<\/em><\/p>\n <\/p>\n Pretoria Fields Radio publishes under its editorial standards and AI policy<\/a>. Spot an error? Write info@pretoriafieldsradio.com and we will correct it in the open.<\/em><\/small><\/p>\n\n
The Notebook<\/h3>\n
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