{"id":2089,"date":"2026-11-05T06:28:03","date_gmt":"2026-11-05T11:28:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pretoriafieldsradio.com\/index.php\/the-thursday-crunch-minus-three-and-the-only\/"},"modified":"2026-11-05T06:28:03","modified_gmt":"2026-11-05T11:28:03","slug":"the-thursday-crunch-minus-three-and-the-only","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pretoriafieldsradio.com\/index.php\/the-thursday-crunch-minus-three-and-the-only\/","title":{"rendered":"The Thursday Crunch: Minus Three, and the Only Georgia Loss"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><!-- pfr-editorial:top --><\/p>\n<p class=\"pfr-byline\"><small><strong>By the RFA Sports Desk<\/strong> \u00b7 Written by Pretoria Fields Radio\u2019s AI newsroom (Jarvis) from public game data. Editor: Tripp Morgan.<\/small><\/p>\n<p><!-- \/pfr-editorial:top --><\/p>\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/pretoriafieldsradio.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/the-thursday-crunch-minus-three-and-the-only-card.png\" alt=\"Title card: The Thursday Crunch: Minus Three, and the Only Georgia Loss \u2014 By the RFA Sports Desk\"\/><figcaption><em>Radio Free Albany title card<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Minus three.<\/p>\n<p>That is the only negative turnover margin Georgia has posted in eight games, and it belongs to the only game Georgia has lost. Against Auburn the Bulldogs gave the ball away three times, took it away zero times and lost 27-24, despite winning the yardage 440 to 366 and the per-play count 6.77 to 4.95.<\/p>\n<p>Georgia has outgained all eight opponents, in total yards and per play. With the turnover margin even or better, it is 7-0. With it negative, 0-1. One game is not a law of nature, but it is the number we would watch first on Saturday.<\/p>\n<p>The Bulldogs visit 6-2 Ole Miss on November 7 at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC. It is the third game our log lists as a Georgia road game, after 45-17 at Arkansas and 20-17 at Alabama. Two housekeeping notes: our compiled numbers cover Georgia only, so this is one side of the matchup, and no game is provisional this week. None of the eight is flagged as waiting on CFBD play-by-play.<\/p>\n<h2>The findings<\/h2>\n<p><strong>12 of 15.<\/strong> Georgia has 15 takeaways against 9 giveaways, a plus-6 margin that looks sturdier than it is. Twelve of those takeaways, 80%, came in three games: Western Kentucky, Oklahoma and Florida. The other five games produced three. Against Alabama and Auburn, Georgia took it away once and gave it away four times, and those games finished as a three-point win and a three-point loss. Gunner Stockton&#8217;s interceptions, four in 181 attempts, account for only four of the nine giveaways, so ball security is a wider matter than the quarterback.<\/p>\n<p><strong>353 of 694.<\/strong> Alabama ran for 161 yards and Auburn for 192. That is 353 of the 694 rushing yards Georgia has allowed, 50.9%, in two of eight games. No other opponent topped 110. The 2.74 yards per rush on the season is excellent and slightly misleading. Those two games are also Georgia&#8217;s only one-score finishes; every other margin is 19 or more.<\/p>\n<p><strong>51.4 to 23.7.<\/strong> Georgia scored 257 points in its first five games, 51.4 a game, and 71 in the last three, 23.7 a game. That is a 54% drop. Yardage fell only 16%, from 478.8 a game to 404.3. Put another way, a point cost 9.3 yards early and 17.1 lately. Five of the nine giveaways have come in those three games, and third downs have cooled from 28 of 51 (54.9%) to 19 of 40 (47.5%). The offense still moves. It has stopped cashing as often.<\/p>\n<h2>The trend: slipping, by less than it first looks<\/h2>\n<p>Net yards per play, Georgia&#8217;s average minus the opponent&#8217;s, has been positive in every game. It has also shrunk: 9.12 against Tennessee State, 0.69 against Florida, the season&#8217;s low.<\/p>\n<p>Split the season in half and it looks alarming: 4.61 a play in the first four games, 1.42 in the last four, a slide of 3.19. That is unfair, because Tennessee State and Western Kentucky are in the first half. Set them aside and Arkansas and Oklahoma come to 2.09, so the honest slide is 0.67 a play.<\/p>\n<p>Nearly all of that is defense. The offense went from 6.64 yards a play to 6.55, down 0.09. The defense went from allowing 4.55 to 5.13, up 0.58. That is two games against four, with uneven opponents, so call it a lean rather than a verdict. For the record, Georgia&#8217;s points say 7.34 wins against 7 actual. The record is not flattering anybody.<\/p>\n<h2>The offensive line<\/h2>\n<p>The comparison is with Georgia&#8217;s 2023-25 seasons combined, not last season alone. These are unit-level proxies from public play-by-play, not lineman grades, and the sample includes the two openers.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Stuff rate:<\/strong> 9.76% (24 of 246 designed runs) against 17.12% (243 of 1,419). Intervals of 6.64-14.11 and 15.25-19.17 do not overlap. This is the clearest improvement on the sheet.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Line yards per carry:<\/strong> 3.70 against 3.21. Intervals of 3.38-4.03 and 3.06-3.36 clear each other by two-hundredths of a yard. Probably better, narrowly shown.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Power success:<\/strong> 76.67% (23 of 30) against 76.32% (116 of 152). Effectively identical, and 30 snaps leaves a wide interval, 59.07-88.21 against 68.96-82.37. No evidence of change either way.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The short version: this line is getting stuffed far less often than recent Georgia lines, and short yardage looks about the same, as far as 30 snaps can tell.<\/p>\n<h2>What to watch<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Turnover margin.<\/strong> Even or better has meant 7-0. Negative has meant the Auburn game.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ole Miss rushing yards.<\/strong> Six opponents stopped at 110 or fewer. The two that reached 161 and 192 finished within three points.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Runs stopped at or behind the line.<\/strong> Georgia&#8217;s rate this season is about one in ten. The 2023-25 rate was about one in six.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>None of that is a forecast. It is simply where Georgia&#8217;s own ledger says its games have turned so far.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 <strong>The RFA Sports Desk<\/strong><\/p>\n<h3>Sources<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxsports.com\/college-football\/georgia-bulldogs-vs-ole-miss-rebels-nov-07-2026-game-boxscore-44025\">Fox Sports: Georgia at Ole Miss game page (records, site, network)<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/olemisssports.com\/game-center\/14818\">Ole Miss Athletics: Football vs Georgia game center (date)<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><!-- pfr-editorial:end --><\/p>\n<p class=\"pfr-standards\"><small><em>Pretoria Fields Radio publishes under its <a href=\"https:\/\/pretoriafieldsradio.com\/index.php\/editorial-standards\/\">editorial standards and AI policy<\/a>. Spot an error? Write info@pretoriafieldsradio.com and we will correct it in the open.<\/em><\/small><\/p>\n<p><script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\": \"https:\/\/schema.org\", \"@type\": \"NewsArticle\", \"headline\": \"The Thursday Crunch: Minus Three, and the Only Georgia Loss\", \"datePublished\": \"2026-11-05\", \"author\": {\"@type\": \"Organization\", \"name\": \"RFA Sports Desk\"}, \"editor\": {\"@type\": \"Person\", \"name\": \"Tripp Morgan\"}, \"publisher\": {\"@type\": \"Organization\", \"name\": \"Pretoria Fields Radio\", \"url\": \"https:\/\/pretoriafieldsradio.com\/\", \"logo\": {\"@type\": \"ImageObject\", \"url\": \"https:\/\/pretoriafieldsradio.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/cropped-logo-270x270.png\"}}, \"isAccessibleForFree\": true, \"publishingPrinciples\": \"https:\/\/pretoriafieldsradio.com\/index.php\/editorial-standards\/\", \"image\": [\"https:\/\/pretoriafieldsradio.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/the-thursday-crunch-minus-three-and-the-only-card.png\"], \"description\": \"Georgia has outgained all eight opponents. The ledger going to Oxford says turnovers, not yards, have been the difference between 7-0 and 0-1.\"}<\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Georgia has outgained all eight opponents. The ledger going to Oxford says turnovers, not yards, have been the difference between 7-0 and 0-1.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":2087,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,6,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2089","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dawg-sports-report","category-georgia-moneyball","category-sports-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pretoriafieldsradio.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2089","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pretoriafieldsradio.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pretoriafieldsradio.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pretoriafieldsradio.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pretoriafieldsradio.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2089"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/pretoriafieldsradio.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2089\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pretoriafieldsradio.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2087"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pretoriafieldsradio.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2089"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pretoriafieldsradio.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2089"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pretoriafieldsradio.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2089"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}