The Thursday Crunch: 287 Rushing Yards in Five Games, 353 in Two — Georgia’s Run Defense Heads to Atlanta
Written by Jarvis Prime on October 29, 2026
In its first five games, Georgia’s defense gave up 287 rushing yards. That’s the total for all five. Then Alabama and Auburn ran for 353 in two.
That is the number this week. Through Vanderbilt the Bulldogs allowed 57.4 rushing yards a game. Over the last two they allowed 176.5, a little more than three times as many. Some of that is the schedule getting harder. How much is the question Florida gets to ask.
Georgia (6-1) plays the Gators on Saturday, Oct. 31, at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta rather than Jacksonville . It’s two weeks since the Auburn loss . Here is what the season’s numbers say going in.
Five findings
1. The run defense has a leak. Rushing yards allowed went 10, 110, 17, 65 and 85 over the first five games, then 161 at Alabama and 192 against Auburn. The season average of 2.84 yards per carry still looks stingy, but the early games are doing most of that work. Which version shows up in Atlanta is the first thing to watch.
2. The yards are still coming. The points aren’t. Over the first five games Georgia gained 2,394 yards and scored 257 points, one point for every 9.3 yards. Over the last two it gained 895 yards and scored 44, one point for every 20.3 yards. The offense gained 455 yards at Alabama and 440 against Auburn, both more than the 306 it needed to score 41 on Oklahoma. The drives are getting long. They just aren’t ending in the end zone.
3. The turnover ledger flipped. On the season Georgia is +3: 11 takeaways, 8 giveaways. But the first five games produced 10 takeaways and 4 giveaways, +6. The last two produced 1 takeaway and 4 giveaways, −3. Against Auburn it was three giveaways, none forced, and a three-point loss. That goes a long way toward explaining finding No. 2.
4. Third down is still Georgia’s. The offense has converted 41 of 76 third downs (53.9%). The defense has allowed 37 of 103 (35.9%). That’s an 18-point gap, and it held even in the loss: 6 of 12 for Georgia, 6 of 16 for Auburn.
5. The record is about what the scoring says it should be. Georgia has scored 301 points and allowed 111. Run through the station’s Pythagorean formula, that works out to a 91.4% win rate, or 6.4 expected wins in seven games. Georgia has six. Its two one-score games split, a 20-17 win at Alabama and a 24-27 loss to Auburn. The Bulldogs have been neither lucky nor unlucky.
The trend: steady
The best single-line summary is net yards per play: Georgia’s yards per play minus its opponent’s. The first three games were blowouts: +9.12, +5.18, +2.53. The last four came in a tight band: +1.48 against Oklahoma, +1.39 against Vanderbilt, +1.69 at Alabama and +1.82 against Auburn.
That makes the trend steady, edging up by about four-tenths of a yard from the Vanderbilt low. Both halves of the gap have shrunk at the same rate. The offense averaged 8.86 yards per play over the first three games and 7.12 over the last three. The defense allowed 3.25 over the first three and 5.49 over the last three. So the margin settled at roughly +1.6 a play against tougher opponents, and has stayed there for a month. The season figure, 7.68 gained minus 4.32 allowed, is +3.36.
The offensive line
The comparison is with Georgia’s 2023, 2024 and 2025 seasons combined, not last season alone.
- Stuff rate: 9.76% (20 of 205 designed runs stopped at or behind the line), against 17.12% for the baseline (243 of 1,419). The likely ranges, 6.4–14.6% and 15.3–19.2%, don’t overlap. This is the clearest improvement on the sheet.
- Line yards per carry: 3.68, against 3.21. The ranges (3.32–4.05 and 3.06–3.36) overlap by a sliver. Probably better, but not proven.
- Power success: 80.95% (17 of 21 short-yardage runs), against 76.32% (116 of 152). With only 21 tries the range runs from 60% to 92%. The two can’t be told apart yet.
- Sack rate allowed: 3.96% (8 of 202 dropbacks), against 3.51%. The ranges overlap. That’s essentially no change.
The line is creating space and the backs are using it. Dwight Phillips Jr. is averaging 7.4 yards a carry and Nate Frazier 6.6. Open-field yardage, earned more than 10 yards downfield, is 2.35 a carry against a 1.08 baseline. These figures describe the line as a unit, drawn from public play-by-play. They aren’t grades for individual linemen.
What to watch Saturday
- Florida’s rushing total at halftime. If it’s tracking toward 2026’s first five games, the defense is fine. If it’s tracking toward the last two, it isn’t.
- The turnover count. Georgia is +6 in its first five games and −3 in the last two.
- Yards per point. Is it closer to 9 or to 20? That’s the efficiency question in one ratio.
- Gunner Stockton, who has completed 117 of 158 passes (74.1%) for 1,570 yards, 9.9 per attempt, with 16 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.
The fine print
No games are provisional this week. None of the seven is marked as relying on ESPN play-by-play in place of CFBD data. Seven games is still a small sample against uneven opponents (Tennessee State, Western Kentucky, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Auburn), so read the intervals as honestly wide.
— The RFA Sports Desk
Sources
- RFA station compiled season numbers (ESPN box scores and play-by-play; CFBD), compiled 2026-10-29
- Georgia Athletics: 2026 kickoff times announced
- AJC: Georgia-Florida game time announced with rivalry game moving to Atlanta
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