Hurricane Party: Isaias Gets Saturday Morning. The Dawgs Get Saturday Night.

By the RFA Sports Desk · Written by Pretoria Fields Radio’s AI newsroom (Jarvis) from public game data. Editor: Tripp Morgan.

There are two forecasts for Saturday, and Georgia people need both of them.

Tuscaloosa: the storm comes first

Hurricane Isaias is coming ashore on the Gulf Coast, and Alabama’s governor has declared a state of emergency in 40 counties. The National Weather Service office in Birmingham has Tuscaloosa under a Tropical Storm Watch, plus a Flood Watch that runs until 7 a.m. Sunday. Its forecast calls for 2 to 3 inches of rain Friday night. The strongest gusts are forecast for Saturday morning.

Then the storm is forecast to keep moving. Birmingham meteorologist James Spann expects it to be north of Tuscaloosa by kickoff, and his game-night forecast reads: “Lingering clouds, an outside risk of a passing shower or two, and winds less than 15 miles per hour.”

The Weather Service’s hourly forecast mostly agrees. Showers are likely right up to the 6:30 Central kickoff, and the chance falls to one in four for the rest of the night.

Kickoff stays at 7:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC, and Alabama says it has no plans to change the game. The field will have taken a soaking in the hours before, and Alabama has run wet-ball drills for two straight weeks.

“It’s uncertainty,” Kirby Smart said this week. “[It’s] beyond my control.”

Albany: the game comes inside the storm

Down here, it is a different story. The Weather Service office in Tallahassee has Albany under its own Tropical Storm Watch and a Flood Watch through 8 p.m. Saturday. The forecast calls for:

• Tonight: 2 to 3 inches of rain, with gusts as high as 40 mph.
• Saturday: 2 to 3 more inches, with showers and thunderstorms likely until 2 a.m. Sunday.

So in Tuscaloosa, the storm comes first and the game comes second. In South Georgia, we watch the game inside the storm. Around here, that is called a hurricane party.

What the number says

The betting market started the week with Georgia as a 2.5-point favorite. It now has Alabama by 1.5, and the total has dropped five full points, from 56.5 to 51.5, over the same days the storm forecast firmed up. If Spann is right, the game may be played in kinder weather than that number assumes.

This station’s Moneyball model ran the game 100,000 times. It trimmed both offenses by 9 percent for weather, the same share the market took off the total.

• Typical score: Alabama 25, Georgia 24.
• Georgia’s chance of winning in regulation: 44.3 percent.
• Chance of a tie after 60 minutes: 5.8 percent.

ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives Georgia 48.2 percent. Either way, it is a coin flip with a hurricane sitting on it.

Four things to watch on a wet night

1. Make Alabama run.

• Georgia allows 57.4 rushing yards a game, third-fewest in the country.
• Alabama’s strength is in the air: 287.4 passing yards a game. Keelon Russell has 1,414 yards, 11 touchdowns and two interceptions, and Ryan Coleman-Williams has turned 20 catches into 376 yards.
• A wet ball pushes teams toward the run. Here, that would mean running straight at the best thing Georgia does.

2. Third down.

• Georgia converts 54.9 percent of its third downs, sixth in the country.
• Against Oklahoma, the best defense Georgia has seen, it went 3-for-12.
• Alabama’s defense allows conversions on just 27.5 percent of third downs, 15th nationally. Georgia should win on first and second down and keep third down short.

3. Touchdowns, not field goals.

• Georgia has scored on 25 of its 28 red-zone trips.
• Alabama’s defense has given up points on 13 of 14, which ranks 117th.
• A 40-yard field goal on a soaked field is nobody’s sure thing.

4. Hold on to the football.

• Gunner Stockton has thrown 13 touchdowns and one interception.
• Georgia has given the ball away four times in five games and taken it away 10 times.
• Alabama is plus-1.4 a game in turnover margin and forced four turnovers against Mississippi State.
• In a game the market calls even, one wet snap could decide it.

Party rules

• Charge phones and battery packs tonight.
• Keep a battery radio handy. If the power goes, the radio call still gets through.
• Run generators outside, well away from doors and windows.
• Water over the road is deeper than it looks. The Weather Service puts it in four words: Turn around, don’t drown.
• If the power holds, the den will be loud by 7:30.

Alabama leads the series 45-27-4 and has won 10 of the last 12. The two split last season, though: Alabama won 24-21 in Athens, and Georgia took the rematch 28-7.

Isaias gets Saturday morning. Saturday night belongs to whoever holds on to the football.

— The RFA Sports Desk

Sources

• National Weather Service Birmingham: Tuscaloosa forecast, Tropical Storm Watch and Flood Watch
• National Weather Service Tallahassee: Albany forecast, Tropical Storm Watch and Flood Watch
• WVTM 13: Ivey declares state of emergency in 40 Alabama counties
• Sports Illustrated: Forecast improves for Alabama-Georgia (James Spann forecast)
• CBS Sports: Georgia vs. Alabama weather tracker (Smart quote, wet-ball drills)
• NBC Sports: Georgia vs. Alabama prediction, team stats and series history
• FanDuel Research: Week 6 odds
• WagerTalk: opening line and line movement (spread and total)
• ESPN game page: DraftKings line, Matchup Predictor, season leaders
• National Weather Service: Turn Around Don't Drown

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